Looking at the GDP data of China's provinces (the first half of the year) last week, I found that the statement of "Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen" needs to be changed. Since Guangzhou's GDP fell by 2.7%, while Chongqing's GDP increased by 0.8%, so:

Chongqing's GDP surpassed that of Guangzhou for the first time

Guangzhou's economy is very dependent on import/export

In the first half of the year, my country's exports fell by 3%

This is the overall import/export situation, and in the musical instrument sector, Guangzhou/Guangdong musical instrument (and pro audio) manufacturers are particularly dependent on the US. However...

U.S. musical instrument demand is plummeting

Imports of grand pianos plunged 76% in the second quarter

Imported microphone-28%, acoustic guitar-57%

And the import of electric guitar is -44%

It's all "half-cut" level data..

The guitar data is especially important

As the world's largest selling musical instrument category, [guitar category] last year's sales in the United States reached $2.22 billion, of which electric guitars accounted for $700 million, and [electric guitars] alone exceeded the entire [recording category] sales in the United States ($4.2 billion dollars),

So the guitar is the "barometer" of the industry

There is no way to know the sales of guitars in the United States, but the number of imported guitars can be checked at the US customs:

The following data are from "Music Trades"

However, due to the small impact of the US in the first quarter

Imports of electric guitars fell only 24% in the first half of the year

down to 2015 levels

However, the import of electric guitars in the first and second quarters actually only accounted for 1/3 of the total import of electric guitars in the United States.

More critical is the third and fourth quarters

Now it seems that the situation in the third quarter is not optimistic, and the situation in the fourth quarter is not clear. Today, I heard that the 2021 Winter NAMM Show has also been cancelled. As the world's largest musical instrument exhibition, this seems to be the first time it has been cancelled since World War II.

Although I want to say "deserved"!

But the next data worries us

The decrease is mainly for Chinese guitars

The top three importers of electric guitars to the U.S. are: China, Indonesia, and Mexico. While both Indonesia and Mexico saw their imports decrease (-18% and -22%, respectively), China saw the biggest drop—38% , that is:

China exports 124,000 fewer guitars

China's electric guitar foundries (and the industrial chain behind them) are almost all concentrated in Guangdong. For these factories, the 38% decline is a disaster, and layoffs and shutdowns are inevitable.

This is just a small consequence of the decoupling between China and the United States (chips are the big deal). Now American students can’t buy high-cost guitars, and Chinese-made guitars are hard to sell to the United States. This game of mutual harm should not end this year. .